Self Belief and Self Delusion

Getting laid off, staying the course, and what it really means to believe in yourself anyway.

(I) The Illusion of the “Right” Decision

During the Great Resignation, I stayed put.

While friends and coworkers left Oracle for roles that paid more — I told myself that all roads in B2B tech sales led to the same place if you kept your head down and did the work. So I stayed.

Less than a year later, Oracle gutted our team and restructured the entire Marketing Cloud division. Roughly 70% of roles were cut — mine included.

I landed another role internally. And then, a second layoff. Two layoffs in under twelve months.

After that, I took a break to reset. I traveled to Egypt to spend time with my wife and her family. Somewhere in the quiet, I started asking harder questions — not just about work, but about belief in myself and my ability to make good decisions.

(II) Good Decisions ≠ Good Outcomes

We like to believe the world works on clean logic: make good choices, and good outcomes follow. But that’s not how life works most of the time.

A 2021 survey found that 80% of Americans who changed jobs during the Great Resignation regretted it. Nearly a third said they missed their former coworkers.

I didn’t get the “right” outcome from staying. But I don’t regret it. It gave me time with my fiancée (now my wife), and kept me close to family. Those are wins that a promotion or paycheck doesn’t always measure.

In hindsight, I made a good decision — even though it led to a bad outcome.

Which raised a deeper question: How do you trust your decisions when the outcome doesn’t reward the effort?

(III) Self Belief Without Self Delusion

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, once wrote:

That line stuck with me. Confidence is neither blind optimism nor self aggrandizement.

(IV) The Magic Mirror

In Disney’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, the Evil Queen summons a magic mirror who constantly tells her that she’s the fairest of them all. Despite being wicked, she was fed a lie about her grandeur.

Avoiding self-delusion is about finding the opposite of the Magic Mirror on the all. It’s about genuine truth seeking, via internal reflection, or with the external help from a mentor. Even if what you learn doesn’t align with what you want to hear.

(V) What Josef Pieper Taught Me About Prudence

Josef Pieper, a German Catholic philosopher — and Aristotle fanboy, like me — described “prudence” as the “mother of all virtues”. It’s the basis of truth seeking. In his book The Four Cardinal Virtues, he breaks prudence into three core components:

• True Memory (Memoria): The ability to see the past clearly, not through the distorted lens of ego or emotion.

• Open-Mindedness (Docilitas): A willingness to learn from others, especially when your own instincts fall short.

• Clear-Sightedness (Solertia): The skill of perceiving the present clearly — and responding swiftly — even when the right path forward isn’t obvious.

Prudence is the active habit of interpreting reality truthfully — and acting accordingly to make the best decision with your information.

When I look back, my mistake wasn’t staying at Oracle. It was confusing a bad outcome for a bad decision. Pieper would’ve called that a failure of memoria, or true memory.

(VI) How Self-Belief Is Actually Built

Self-belief doesn’t arrive in a singular exciting moment. It builds slowly — decision by decision.

• Make a good choice.

• Reflect on it honestly.

• Rinse and repeat.

Over time, the sea of data points will become clear: you’re a person capable of making the right decisions.

(VII) Looking Back

At the time, staying at Oracle didn’t feel like the right move. But now, years later, I look at my marriage, my family, and the clarity that time gave me — and I realize: It was the right decision. Just not the easy one.

—Grant Varner

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